I am actually going to post 2 polls in this diary. The first is the Nevada poll with a 45-45 tie. The second is a Morning Consult National poll that shows Sanders has surged nationally since late January, and since Iowa and New Hampshire.
First, the Nevada Poll (45-45 tie):
http://freebeacon.com/politics/free-beacon-poll-clinton-and-sanders-tied-in-nevada/
Nevadans expected to participate in next week’s Democratic presidential caucus are evenly split between the party’s two candidates, according to a new Washington Free Beacon poll.
The poll shows Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders tied at 45 percent each among likely caucusgoers. Clinton narrowly edges Sanders among those who have completely made up their mind. But undecided caucusgoers and those who might change their mind say recent scandals involving Clinton make them significantly less likely to support her.
...
Clinton’s campaign has worked to downplay expectations in Nevada ahead of the Democratic caucuses there. “There’s going to be a narrowing in [South Carolina and Nevada]—we’re clear-eyed about that,” campaign spokesman Brian Fallon said this week.
Fallon falsely claimed that Nevada is 80 percent white, suggesting that Sanders does better among white voters while Clinton leads among minorities. In fact, the state is roughly 51 percent white.
…
Though Sanders’ numbers have improved, it remains to be seen whether Nevada voters who support him will turn out in large enough numbers to hand him another early-state victory. Among those who have participated in the Democratic caucus before, Clinton leads by 11 points, while first-time caucusgoers support Sanders by six points.
Like Iowa’s Democratic caucus, Nevada’s is open to any registered Democrat—including those who register on the same day. Sanders is hoping that a sizable chunk of independent voters end up participating; among Democrats, Clinton leads by 11 points, but she trails by 27 among independents, according to the poll.
The demographic breakdown in caucusgoer support reflects the trends of the previous two Democratic presidential contests. Sanders enjoys overwhelming support among young people; by 63-16, voters between the ages of 18 and 29 support the Vermont senator.
Clinton leads by seven points among women, but women under 30 back Sanders by a 40-point margin.
This poll was conducted before the debate, which Sanders won 25-9 in a Nevada focus group.
It was conducted 1 day before and 1 day after New Hampshire. While it didn't see Sanders go up the day after, that means that he was already polling fairly well before New Hampshire. That means he probably got a bounce coming out of Iowa.
Second, the National Morning Consult Poll: Clinton 46 (-4 since Feb 3-7) Sanders 39 (+2 since Feb 3-7):
Nationally, there is a Morning Consult Poll out that continues to show Sanders surging nationally:
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wins 46 percent of the vote, just seven points higher than Sanders’s 39 percent — the largest percentage the Vermont independent has ever notched in a Morning Consult survey.
While that has Clinton still ahead by 7, you have to take into account the fact that Morning Consult has a strong pro-Clinton house effect. They have consistently had Sanders weaker than other national polls.
From January 21-24, when Morning Consult had the race at Clinton 48 — Sanders 31, the Huffington Post Pollster Polling Average was 51-36. So if Sanders is only down by 7 in Morning Consult, other pollsters are likely to show the race closer.
Since January 21-24, Sanders has gained 8 points nationally, while Clinton has lost 2 points. Since Feb 3-7, Sanders has gained 2 points and Clinton has lost 4 points.
Trend in Morning Consult Polls:
Poll |
Feb 10-11 |
Feb 3-7 |
Feb 2-3 |
Jan 29-31 |
Jan 21-24 |
Clinton |
46 |
50 |
51 |
50 |
48 |
Sanders |
39 |
37 |
35 |
34 |
31 |
Among African Americans and Hispanics, Clinton leads, but Sanders has made significant inroads. There is a difference between African Americans and Hispanics — only the former are supporting Clinton by a particularly strong margin:
Clinton leads among black voters by a 63 percent to 26 percent margin, and among Hispanics by a 52 percent to 44 percent edge.
With Quinnipiac being the only reputably live-phone pollster to have released a national poll since Iowa, and with them showing the race at only 44 Clinton — 42 Sanders, it will be very interesting to see what national polls say in the coming days.