Bernie Sanders’ positive momentum in South Carolina is confirmed by yet another robo-pollster.
Earlier today, Gravis Marketing released a new SC poll in which Sanders had cut Clinton’s lead in South Carolina to 59-41. Now, PPP has a new poll that shows similar results:
|
Vote Share |
Sanders |
34% (+16%) |
Clinton |
55% (-17%) |
PPP found that Sanders had gained ground with African Americans (who are supporting Clinton 63% with 23% for Sanders in the poll). Clinton's lead is down sharply from PPP's last poll in November, when Clinton led 86%-11% among African Americans. White voters are roughly tied, according to the article.
The difference between the polls is basically the number of undecideds. Gravis has no undecideds, whereas PPP has 11% undecideds. If the undecideds in PPP were to split evenly, the result of the PPP poll would be 60.5% to 39.5%. This is also in the same range as a CBS/Yougov poll from a day or two ago that had the race at 59-40.
All of this marks a significant shift from before Iowa, when Clinton’s internal polls had her up 35 points in South Carolina.
For methodological reasons, robo-pollsters have tended to understate Sanders’ support, so Sanders may actually have even cut Clinton’s lead below 20 points. PPP substantially underestimated Sanders and overestimated Clinton in both Iowa and New Hampshire (as did ARG).
Understatement of Sanders and overstatement of Clinton support by robopolls and internet polls (relative to live phone polls):
Poll Type |
Pro-Clinton Bias |
Pro-Sanders Bias |
Internet |
+.1 |
-1.8 |
Automated |
+3.8 |
-4.9 |
IVR/Online |
+2.8 |
-6.0 |
Relative to live phone polls conducted at the same time, Internet polls have on average overstated Clinton's support by .1% and understated Sanders’ support by 1.8%. Automated polls (robopolls) have on average overstated Clinton's support by 3.8% and understated Sanders' support by 4.9% relative to live phone polls. Combination IVR/Online polls have overstated Clinton's support by an average of 2.8% and understated Sanders’ support by 6.0% relative to live phone polls.
If Sanders can keep Clinton to around a 20 point win in South Carolina, he will be about where he needs to be in order to be competitive with Clinton going forward, as some more thorough analysis shows.
Again, the bottom line is that one of these lines just keeps going up. In another 2 weeks, after Nevada, who knows where it will be:
In 2008, Obama beat Clinton by 29 points (55 to 26) in New Hampshire. It appears that even if Sanders doesn't gain further ground, things will probably be closer this time around.